New Product Forecasting

Focused on Your Company’s Objectives

Moving your product from the laboratory to the marketplace requires solid information to plan effectively and attract partners and investors. Objective Insights is highly qualified to assess the commercial prospects of your products in development.

 

Using Information to Your Advantage

Objective Insights thoroughly researches your company’s product, therapeutic area, and competition prior to starting your forecast design. Objective Insights draws from the latest medical literature and government health databases to estimate the epidemiology and treatment patterns applicable to your product.

Objective Insights also employs appropriate levels of primary and secondary market research (including audit data) to produce a forecast that incorporates current clinical thinking and market events.

 

Structured Forecasting Approach

Objective Insights employs a parametric sequential segmentation forecasting approach that splits forecast inputs into their component parts such as population, incidence or prevalence, proportion diagnosed, proportion treated, market share, and pricing elements. This allows you to isolate the individual aspects of the forecast and verify that they are correct.

Where suitable, Objective Insights also employs patient dynamics forecast design that accounts for the transition of patients through different states of disease and treatment. These types of forecasts are most appropriate for oncology, infectious diseases, or when warranted by the nature of the disease (multiple stages, lines of therapy, disease progression, etc.).

 

State-of-the-Art Forecasting Techniques

Objective Insights uses advanced forecasting techniques to help your company better understand its markets. We use Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis; Monte Carlo simulation allows you to enter a range of possible values for each forecast input, so precise estimates are not required for every entry in the forecast. Monte Carlo’s benefit is that it allows your company to see the full range of possible forecast results and enables you to estimate the probability of achieving different levels of revenue.

Sensitivity analysis is a side benefit of Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analysis shows which variables are most important to the forecast; you can then focus your market research resources on these areas to narrow the range of uncertainty.

Objective Insights also employs product analogs to estimate market share adoption and erosion rates. We look at comparable products to provide a realistic view of what your company can achieve in the marketplace.

Finally, Objective Insights calibrates your forecast against current market data to validate the forecast assumptions and ensure that your company has realistic results in hand to take forth to potential partners and investors.

Objective Insights believes that our approach and experience produces solid, defendable forecasts that your company can rely on for corporate planning, partnering, and investment purposes.

TOOLS USED

LTF S

Long-Term Forecaster™

A patient-based, epidemiology-based long-term forecasting model with a full P&L

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STF S

Short-Term Forecaster™

For new products; incorporate market sales trends and other events to predict sales

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VaxForecaster S

 VaxForecaster™

Complete forecasting system for a portfolio of vaccines

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